
I’m delighted that Scott Johnston once again allows me to share one of his excellent monthly newsletters. Scott’s an experienced hedge fund exec who’s currently a PM and principal at the Belstar Group, an asset allocator and fund-of-funds. Contact him at sjohnston {AT} belstargroup [DOT] com.
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Dear Partners and Friends,
The Madoff scandal has so many facets, it is difficult to know where to start. The sheer size of it is mind boggling. Many thought that the initial $50 billion number, which came from Madoff himself, was likely an exaggeration, but as of this writing, it may not be. I think back to Ivan Boesky, the singular scammer of the 1980s. I think he managed a few hundred million
Is this a hedge fund scandal? I think you’d have to say that it is, despite the fact that Madoff did not, himself, run a hedge fund. He accepted brokerage accounts, which he then managed through his own brokerage firm. But many formed de facto hedge funds around Madoff for the sole purpose of feeding money to him.
Scammers will always be with us. It should not be shocking to anyone that there are those willing to lie and cheat to make money. Bernie Madoff is simply the latest of a long line of con men: Charles Ponzi, Bernard Cornfeld, Ivan Boesky, Sam Israel, Dana Giachetto, Raffaello Follieri (Anne Hathaway’s boyfriend)…it’s a long list.
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guests, hedge funds, our managed markets

I’m very pleased to present our first guest blogger to this space – Scott Johnston. Scott’s an experienced hedge fund exec who’s currently a PM and principal at the
Belstar Group, an asset allocator and fund-of-funds. This post has been excerpted, with permission, from his monthly newsletter. Contact him at sjohnston {AT} belstargroup [DOT] com.
The biggest single impediment I see for investors contemplating an investment into hedge funds is “blow up” risk. How can they think otherwise, with all the hype? The media enjoy little more than the self-immolation of a hedge fund – Rich Guys Get Theirs! Blow-ups score a 10 on the CNBC schadenfreude scale. (Note: for institutional investors, blow up risk translates more specifically into “headline risk,” which is basically the risk of losing one’s job if a hedge fund you invested in ends up in the papers for the wrong reason.)
How common are hedge fund blow-ups? How often do they happen? What do they do to returns? These are questions I wanted to get to the bottom of.
Fishing around, I found surprisingly little research on the subject, so I thought it might be useful to conduct a survey of our own. Specifically, we will look at hedge fund blow-ups through the years to see what kind of conclusions we can draw. For the sake of argument, we will call anything greater than a 50% loss a blow-up.
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books, guests, hedge funds, portfolio management